(This story will be updated up to Election Day with new polling data and other information relevant to the legalization initiatives detailed below.)
Voters in five states will decide whether to legalize medical and recreational cannabis on Nov. 3, with billions of dollars of market opportunities hanging in the balance.
Successful ballot measures could sway residents and lawmakers in neighboring states to follow suit – especially in the Northeast if New Jersey residents vote to legalize an adult-use market.
Legalization activity is brisk for the November election, especially given that ballot initiative efforts in Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma and elsewhere were stymied by the coronavirus pandemic and other factors.
Here’s a look at the five states with legalization measures on the ballot next month.
ARIZONA
Background: The state has a pro-industry initiative on the ballot that favors existing medical marijuana licensees. Many are multistate operators that have acquired a presence in Arizona in the past couple of years or expanded their operations aggressively. But some strong independents operate in Arizona as well.
Ballot measure: Proposition 207, recreational marijuana
Sponsor: Smart and Safe Arizona
Population: 7.3 million
Projected first-year sales: $375 million-$400 million
Projected 2024 sales: $700 million-$760 million
Key business factors:
- Existing medical cannabis operators would automatically win entry into the adult-use market.
- State would award 26 social equity licenses.
- Retail marijuana sales would face a 16% tax.
Likelihood of passage: 51% of registered voters said they would vote for the initiative while 41% would vote against it, according to a poll conducted in September by New Jersey’s Monmouth University. But another September poll, by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights, found only 46% of the state’s likely voters support adult-use marijuana, while 45% oppose it, with 9% undecided.
MISSISSIPPI
Background: Citizens gathered enough signatures to place a business-friendly medical marijuana initiative on the ballot, but state lawmakers countered with a restrictive competing measure. The state’s election code makes it more difficult for an initiative to prevail when competing measures are on the same ballot.
Ballot measures: Initiative 65, 65A, medical marijuana
Sponsor of citizen initiative: Mississippians for Compassionate Care
Population: 2.9 million
Projected first-year sales: $240 million-$265 million*
Projected 2024 sales: $750 million-$800 million*
(*Projections are only for Initiative 65, the citizen initiative.)
Key business factors:
- Regulators would be prevented from limiting the number of MMJ licenses.
- Licenses would be issued no later than Aug. 15, 2021.
- The state sales tax (currently 7%) would apply to retail MMJ products.
Likelihood of passage: 81% favor MMJ legalization, with 52% for the citizen initiative. That would be just enough for the measure to pass under the election rules governing competitive measures. The poll was funded earlier this year by the citizen initiative group.
MONTANA
Background: Voters will decide on a recreational marijuana measure that limits business participation to Montana residents.
Residency requirements are becoming a rarer breed, with their constitutionality increasingly challenged in the courts.
Ballot Measure: Initiative 190, recreational marijuana
Sponsor: New Approach Montana
Population: 1.1 million
Projected first-year sales: $217.2 million (University of Montana study)
Projected 2024 sales: $234 million (University of Montana)
Key business factors:
- License holders would be required to be Montana residents.
- Existing medical cannabis operators would get a 12-month head start.
- Prospective MMJ companies wouldn’t face a license cap.
- The business license application process would start by October 2021.
Likelihood of passage: A University of Montana poll in February found that residents supported recreational marijuana legalization by a margin of 54% to 37%, with 10% undecided.
NEW JERSEY
Background: Residents are being asked to legalize a commercial recreational marijuana program that eventually is expected to become a multibillion-dollar-a-year industry. A successful initiative is almost sure to spur New York, Pennsylvania and other neighboring states to similarly legalize.
Ballot measure: Public Question 1, recreational marijuana
Sponsor: State Legislature put the initiative on the ballot
Population: 8.9 million
Projected first-year sales: $375 million-$400 million
Projected 2024 sales: $850 million-$950 million
Key business factors:
- Lawmakers and regulators would decide on the number and type of marijuana business licenses available, but existing MMJ operators would likely get first crack at the recreational market.
- Adult-use products would face a 6.625% sales tax.
- Municipalities could pass ordinances to charge local taxes of up to 2%.
Likelihood of passage: Residents favor the legalization proposal by a margin of 68% in favor and 26% against with 6% unsure, according to a July poll commissioned by the cannabis law practice of New Jersey-based Brach Eichler and conducted by DKC Analytics of New York.
SOUTH DAKOTA
Background: South Dakota could become the first state in the country to simultaneously legalize medical and adult-use marijuana in November.
Ballot measures: Amendment A, recreational marijuana; Measure 26, medical marijuana
Sponsors: South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws, New Approach South Dakota
Population: 884,659
Projected first-year sales: $1.5 million-$2 million*
Projected 2024 sales: $10 million-$12 million*
(*Projections are for a medical marijuana market only.)
Key business factors:
- Medical marijuana: A local government wouldn’t be able to ban MMJ but could establish the number of establishments allowed in its jurisdiction.
- Recreational marijuana: Regulators would have to issue “enough licenses to substantially reduce the illicit production and sale of cannabis throughout the state.” But regulators also would be directed to limit licenses to “to prevent an undue concentration” in any municipality.
Jeff Smith can be reached at [email protected]
